AUDJPY – Hourly Ascending Triangle forms in Daily Downtrend

The nature of triangle patterns is to illustrate congestion zones in broader price trends. This is why a triangle that occurs in a ranging market is not likely to be of huge value. The other thing that traders need to keep in mind is that the type of triangle does not inherently determine the direction in which the breakout will occur. This point brings me to the ascending triangle that you can see below on the hourly AUDJPY chart:

You can see here that the price has entered into a congestion zone in a short term uptrend. The broader move on the daily chart however is much more negative and whilst a person could easily argue that the moves to date show the first signs of a trend reversal I’m not sure that we are there yet – which leads me to think that the most likely direction of a breakout here will be to the downside. Reflecting on what I said in the first paragraph though – a break in either direction will not invalidate that pattern.

I measure the height of this pattern as 2.02 which you would use as your first profit target once the breakout has been confirmed. A stop somewhere in the region of 78.90 looks the most appropriate at this stage but we will have to see what price action occurs in the meantime. Be sure to check out the daily chart to see where the hourly price action fits in with the broader moves in the trend.

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